Beef prices in the United States have soared to historic levels, turning a staple grocery item into a political crisis. Donald Trump, who once insisted inflation was “dead,” now faces criticism as rising beef costs threaten his promise to make groceries more affordable. This week, he urged ranchers on social media to lower cattle prices. But his demands — and other proposals from his administration — have angered ranchers, who warn the measures could hurt small producers while doing little to ease costs for consumers.
Shrinking herds squeeze supply
The US cattle industry has been declining for decades. Domestic beef supply has fallen while demand remains strong, pushing prices higher. The national herd now stands at its lowest level in nearly 75 years. Since 2017, over 150,000 cattle ranches — about 17% — have disappeared, according to the Agriculture Department.
Ranchers blame a few dominant meat processors for squeezing profits. Rising costs for feed, fertiliser, and equipment make survival harder. Years of drought have forced many to reduce their herds drastically.
In Illinois, rancher Christian Lovell said fields once green and lush are now dry and barren. “You put all these together and you have a recipe for a really broken market,” said Lovell, who works with advocacy group Farm Action.
Beef prices rise faster than inflation
Retail beef prices have climbed far faster than general food inflation. Ground beef increased 12.9% in the past year, while steak prices jumped 16.6%, according to federal data. A pound of ground chuck now costs $6.33, up from $5.58 last year. Overall food inflation stands at 3.1%.
“The cattle herd has been shrinking for years, yet Americans still want that beef,” said Brenda Boetel, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.
Derrell Peel, a professor at Oklahoma State University, predicts high prices will persist until at least the end of the decade. “Rebuilding herds takes years,” he said, noting the administration has few tools to lower prices quickly.
Import plan sparks rancher anger
The Agriculture Department unveiled plans this week to increase domestic beef production by opening more grazing land and supporting smaller meat processors. But Trump’s separate plan to import more beef from Argentina — potentially quadrupling purchases — triggered outrage among ranchers.
Eight House Republicans warned the White House that increased imports could devastate domestic producers. Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, normally a Trump ally, said the plan “creates chaos for producers while doing nothing to lower grocery prices.”
Trump defended the plan, citing tariffs that restrict imports from Brazil. “They have to get their prices down,” he wrote. “The consumer is a very big factor in my thinking.” His statement did little to calm ranchers.
Justin Tupper, president of the US Cattlemen’s Association, said the plan would mainly benefit major meat processors. “I don’t see that lowering prices here at all,” he said.
Market concentration fuels the crisis
Experts say the main issue lies in four companies — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — which control over 80% of US beef processing.
“These are consolidated markets gouging ranchers and gouging consumers,” said Austin Frerick, an agricultural and antitrust policy expert at Yale University.
The companies face multiple lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s accusing them of colluding to inflate prices. Earlier this year, Trump repealed a Biden-era order aimed at curbing corporate consolidation in food. Despite this, his administration has launched new investigations into competition in agriculture.
Ranchers face a precarious future
In Kansas, rancher Mike Callicrate survives by selling beef directly to consumers, bypassing middlemen. But most ranchers cannot afford that approach. Many have already left the industry and see little reason to return.
“We’re not going to rebuild this cow herd — not until we address market concentration,” Callicrate said. He supports opening more grazing land but warned, “Without a fair market, you’re a fool to get into the cattle business.”
Bill Bullard, head of trade group R-CALF USA, closed his 300-cow ranch in South Dakota in 1985 as consolidation spread. He said ranchers only recently received higher prices because tight supply forced processors to pay more.
Still, Bullard said imports and corporate dominance continue to undermine confidence. “Trump is focused on the symptoms, not the problems,” he said.
As beef prices climb and family ranches disappear, Trump faces a pivotal challenge: can he lower grocery costs without alienating the producers who form the backbone of America’s cattle industry?
