Precious metals have led the market this year, propelled by geopolitical risks, expectations of looser monetary policy, and fragile global economic stability. Gold surged to record highs in 2025, climbing as high as $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce — a rise of roughly 55–70% year-on-year, marking one of the most powerful annual rallies in decades. Silver, often seen as gold’s “lesser” counterpart, outpaced it in percentage gains, rising 130–140% and reaching near $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025.
Once overshadowed by modern stores of value such as currency, bonds, and real estate, precious metals reclaimed investor attention this year amid tit-for-tat tariffs, central banks reducing reliance on the US dollar, and ongoing political tensions. This week, gold jumped as much as 2.4% and silver 3.4% as tensions flared between the US and Venezuela, particularly after the US Navy attempted to seize a third oil tanker linked to the South American nation. While gold prices are not directly tied to Venezuela, the crisis signals a cluster of risks to markets, including energy supply disruptions, sanctions escalation, and broader geopolitical friction. As a result, gold and silver remain attractive because they are not dominated by any single government, do not depend on corporate earnings, carry no default risk, and are harder to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Tariffs Spark Early Safe-Haven Demand
Gold began the year elevated, reflecting uncertainty about inflation, interest rates, and spillovers from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. In March, prices surged above $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time in 2025 as fears grew over new and expanding US tariffs under President Donald Trump, particularly on steel, aluminium, and potential broader trade measures. Markets interpreted this as the onset of an escalating trade war and rising inflation risks, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven, while silver’s response remained more muted.
April–June: Middle East Tensions Push Metals Higher
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, announced on 2 April, sent spot gold prices toward record highs above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce as traders reacted to the threat of an escalating trade conflict. Gold continued to climb through spring and early summer, reaching peaks near $3,354 (€2,842) per troy ounce amid broadening geopolitical stress, including renewed Middle East tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel. In late June, the US Air Force and Navy struck three nuclear facilities in Iran amid the Iran–Israel war, further driving safe-haven demand.
July–September: Fed Standoff and Full Tariff Rollout Strengthen Rally
A public standoff between President Trump and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over interest rates intensified gold’s mid-year rally. Trump criticized Powell for keeping rates high and pressed for cuts that Powell refused, fueling speculation about possible Fed leadership changes. Spot gold climbed above $3,400 (€2,883) per ounce during the summer, supported by monetary policy uncertainty and ongoing trade concerns. On 11 July, Trump announced a sweeping tariff package, largely implemented on 1 August, prompting central banks to increase gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification. Silver mirrored the trend, reaching $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold Tops $4,000 Amid Trade, Policy, and Shutdown Risks
Gold broke the $4,000 (€3,392) barrier in early October as safe-haven demand rose alongside expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. By 13 October, gold exceeded $4,133 (€3,504) amid US–China trade tensions. Although tentative progress in trade talks temporarily pushed prices below $4,000 (€3,392), the overall trend remained upward. Investors also monitored a potential US government shutdown and continued public criticism of the Fed by the Trump administration. By late November, gold traded around $4,210 (€3,567), marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain, while silver reached a fresh record near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Record Highs and Venezuela Flashpoints
Late December 2025 proved the most dramatic. Gold soared past $4,490 per troy ounce and silver approached $70 per ounce as investors sought safe havens amid reports of US military action and attempts to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could depress real yields and further support bullion prices, compounded by a weakening US dollar.
